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曼昆说总需求不足是胡扯,数据一整理意义全变了  

2010-08-15 16:26:05|  分类: 默认分类 |  标签: |举报 |字号 订阅

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两年多的经济刺激,一点用都没有。曼昆这样聪明点的经济学家已经开始给自己找后路了。他引用芝加哥大学Casey Mulligan的研究说凯恩斯主义是谬误,原始未加工的数据表明,萨伊定律是成立的,供给会创造出需求,而丝毫不受经济周期影响。就像对打工的学生所做的研究指出的。季节性增加的劳动力反而增加了市场总需求,即使是08年的萧条期也不例外。但是只要原始数据一加工,做了季节性调整,这样的事实就被掩盖而看不出来了。

 

Thursday, August 12, 2010

A Challenge to Extreme Keynesians

The key insight of Keynesian economics is that the problem during recessions is inadequate aggregate demand.  Taken to the extreme, which some Keynesians do, it says that aggregate demand is the only thing you need to worry about during downturns.  Changes in aggregate supply (due to, say, high marginal tax rates or adverse incentives associated unemployment insurance) don't matter, they argue, because employment is being constrained by the low level of aggregate demand.

University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan offers a challenge to that view.  Casey points out that there is a regular surge in teenage employment during the summer months because more teenagers are available to work (that is, the supply of their labor has increased).  That is no surprise: It is normal supply and demand in action.  But if aggregate demand were the main constraint on employment, this increase in supply should not translate into higher employment during deep recessions such as this one.  But it does!

曼昆说凯恩斯主义是胡扯,数据一整理意义全变了 - chengye - 自由即奴役,无知即力量
 Most economists, Keynesians and otherwise, ignore this summer change in employment because we focus on seasonally adjusted data.  But as Casey points out, the raw unadjusted data may have something important to teach us.

Casey might want us to take this as evidence against the entire Keynesian worldview.  I would not go quite that far, but it surely provides a challenge to extreme Keynesianism.  I am reminded of a response I once gave to a reporter who asked whether I was a supply-sider or a Keynesian.  "I am neither a supply-side economist nor a demand-side economist," I said.  "I am a supply-and-demand economist."

About Me

曼昆说凯恩斯主义是胡扯,数据一整理意义全变了 - chengye - 自由即奴役,无知即力量
 Name:
Greg Mankiw
Location: United States

I am a professor of economics at Harvard University, where I teach introductory economics (ec 10) among other courses. I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource.

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